Adviao Research
Bubble Research Group™
Bubble Research Group is the forecasting research arm of Adviao LLC. Through the Bubble Forecast Intelligence Lab, we study how people, AI, and information together produce better predictions about what happens next.
Our lab researches forecasting systems, prediction markets, human-AI intelligence, information flow, and decision support. Its working model, Bubble Forecast Intelligence, combines judgments from many different human forecasters with AI analysis to produce probabilities on real-world questions.
Where Bubble fits in Adviao's work
All of Adviao's work rests on one idea: outcomes leave signals before they happen. Each part of our research reads a different kind of signal.
The method
NAFRA narrative framework
Codes how leaders and institutions communicate and links those patterns to outcomes. Validated across nine U.S. presidential election cycles (1992–2024), with Cohen's kappa of 0.93 across 2,434 coded instances.
The forecasting lab
Bubble Forecast Intelligence
Tests and extends forecasting methods using collective human judgment, AI, and prediction-market signals.
You are hereThe applied tool
CIS™ Contract Intelligence System
Applies the same signal-reading logic to construction and federal projects, estimating the likelihood that a claim will succeed.
How Bubble is organized
- Parent organization Bubble Research Group™A research unit of Adviao LLC.
- Research unit Bubble Forecast Intelligence LabWhere forecasting questions are designed, tested, and scored.
- Technology Bubble Forecast IntelligenceBetaThe lab's forecasting model, currently in research beta.
What the lab studies
- Forecasting systemsHow to structure questions and combine judgments so forecasts are accurate and well calibrated.
- Prediction marketsWhat market prices reveal about collective expectations, and where they go wrong.
- Human-AI intelligenceWhere human judgment adds what AI cannot, and how the two work best together.
- Information flowHow news, narratives, and signals move through groups and shift beliefs.
- Decision supportTurning probabilities into information leaders can act on.
Explore the research at Bubble Research Group.
See current forecasts, methods, and updates from the Bubble Forecast Intelligence Lab.
Bubble Forecast Intelligence is a research model in beta. Its forecasts are for research and educational purposes and are not financial, investment, or trading advice.